A generic ageing model for prognosis - Application to Permanent Magnet Synchronous Machines

Garance Vinson, Pauline Ribot, and Michel Combacau
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Full Paper
phmce_14_012.pdf660.17 KBJune 22, 2014 - 7:35am

In the context of more electrical aircrafts, Permanent Magnet Synchronous Machines are used in a more and more aggressive environment. It becomes necessary to supervise their health state and to predict their future evolution and remaining useful life in order to anticipate any requested maintenance operation. Model based prognosis is a solution to this issue. A generic modeling framework is proposed in this paper in order to implement such a prognosis method which relies on knowledge about the system ageing. The choice of model based prognosis among other methods is motivated, and a review of existing ageing laws is presented. A generic ageing model is then defined, that allows representing the ageing of any equipment and the impact of this ageing on its environment. It includes the possible retroaction of the system health state to itself through stress increase in case of damage. The ageing model is then illustrated with Permanent Magnet Synchronous Machines. A fictive but realistic scenario of stator ageing is built. It comprises apparition and progression of an inter-turns short-circuit and its impact on stator temperature, which value has an impact on the ageing speed. A prognosis method based on the generic ageing model is proposed, and applied successfully to this scenario.

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Submission Keywords: 
ageing law
damage prognosis
failure prognosis
Submission Topic Areas: 
Model-based methods for fault detection, diagnostics, and prognosis
Modeling and simulation
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