Applying the General Path Model to Estimation of Remaining Useful Life

Jamie Coble and J. Wesley Hines
Publication Target: 
IJPHM
Publication Issue: 
1
Submission Type: 
Full Paper
AttachmentSizeTimestamp
ijPHM_11_007.pdf636.13 KBAugust 2, 2011 - 8:00am

The ultimate goal of most prognostic systems is accurate prediction of the remaining useful life of individual systems or components based on their use and performance. This class of prognostic algorithms is termed Effects-Based or Type III Prognostics. Traditional individual-based prognostics involve identifying an appropriate degradation measure to characterize the system's progression to failure. A functional fit of this parameter is then extrapolated to a pre-defined failure threshold to estimate the remaining useful life of the system or component. This paper proposes a specific formulation of the General Path Model with dynamic Bayesian updating as one effects-based prognostic algorithm. The method is illustrated with an application to the prognostics challenge problem posed at PHM '08.

Publication Year: 
2011
Publication Volume: 
2
Publication Control Number: 
007
Page Count: 
13
Submission Topic Areas: 
Data-driven methods for fault detection, diagnosis, and prognosis
Submitted by: 
  
 
 
 

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