Cost-benefit Analysis of Prognostics and Condition-based Maintenance Concepts for Commercial Aircraft Considering Prognostic Errors

Nico B. Hölzel and Volker Gollnick
Submission Type: 
Full Paper
phmc_15_050.pdf1.31 MBAugust 21, 2015 - 6:18am

This paper provides a lifecycle cost-benefit analysis of the use of Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) systems in future or present commercial aircraft. The approach considers individual aircraft component’s failure behavior, prognostic performance levels including prognostic errors, and condition-based maintenance (CBM) concepts. The proposed methodology is based on a discrete-event simulation for aircraft operation and maintenance and uses an optimization algorithm for the planning and scheduling of condition-based maintenance (CBM) tasks. In the study, a 150-seat short-/medium-range aircraft equipped with PHM and subject to a CBM program is analyzed. The simulation results are evaluated from an operational and economic perspective. The analysis results can support the derivation of technical and economic requirements for prognostic systems and CBM planning concepts.

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Submission Keywords: 
Condition Based Maintenance
cost-benefit analysis
discrete-event simulation
prognostic errors
Submission Topic Areas: 
Economics and cost-benefit analysis
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