|ijphm_16_008.pdf||877.49 KB||May 18, 2016 - 8:22am|
A simulation-based real options analysis (ROA) approach is used to determine the optimum predictive maintenance opportunity for a wind turbine with a remaining useful life (RUL) prediction. When an RUL is predicted for a subsystem in a single turbine using PHM, a predictive maintenance option is triggered that the decision-maker has the flexibility to decide if and when to exercise before the subsystem or turbine fails. The predictive maintenance value paths are simulated by considering the uncertainties in the RUL prediction and wind speed (that govern the turbine’s revenue earning potential). By valuating a series of European options expiring on all possible predictive maintenance opportunities, a series of option values can be obtained, and the optimum predictive maintenance opportunity can be determined. A case study is presented in which the ROA approach is applied to a single turbine.