data driven prognostics

Kamran Javed, Rafael Gouriveau, Ryad Zemouri, and Noureddine Zerhouni
Submission Type: 
Full Paper

Within condition based maintenance (CBM), the whole aspect
of prognostics is composed of various tasks from multidimensional
data to remaining useful life (RUL) of the equipment.
Apart from data acquisition phase, data-driven prognostics
is achieved in three main steps: features extraction
and selection, features prediction, and health-state classification.
The main aim of this paper is to propose a way of improving
existing data-driven procedure by assessing the predictability
of features when selecting them. The underlying

Publication Year: 
2011
Publication Volume: 
2
Publication Control Number: 
062
Submission Keywords: 
data driven prognostics
RUL prediction
predictability
Submission Topic Areas: 
Data-driven methods for fault detection, diagnosis, and prognosis
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Peter J. Liu, Abhinav Saxena, Kai Goebel, Bhaskar Saha, and Wilson Wang
Submission Type: 
Full Paper
Supporting Agencies (optional): 
UC Berkeley and NASA

Prognostics is an emerging science of predicting the health condition of a system (or its components) based upon current and previous system states. A reliable predictor is very useful to a wide array of industries to predict the future states of the system such that the maintenance service could be scheduled in advance when needed. In this paper, an adaptive recurrent neural network (ARNN) is proposed for system dynamic state forecasting.

Publication Control Number: 
065
Submission Keywords: 
data driven prognostics
recurrent neural networks
Remaining useful Life
performance evaluation
battery health management
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Preston Johnson
Submission Type: 
Full Paper

The use of condition monitoring (CM) in wind energy machines continues to evolve as wind energy machines grow in size and move offshore. Early and smaller wind generation machines offered little financial incentives for condition monitoring, justifying only simple and inexpensive health monitoring technologies. Today, multi-megawatt wind machines are more complex, more difficult to physically reach, and generate more revenue than previous models. This paper reviews challenges and candidate technologies for next generation condition monitoring in Wind Energy.

Publication Control Number: 
053
Submission Keywords: 
signal processing
Wind Turbine
Cepstrum
Wavelet
Order Analysis
Time Synchronous Averaging
data driven prognostics
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Taimoor Khawaja and George Vachtsevanos
Submission Type: 
Full Paper

The ability to forecast machinery failure is vital to reducing maintenance costs, operation downtime and safety hazards. Recent advances in condition monitoring technologies have given rise to a number of prognostic schemes (both model-based and data-driven) that attempt to forecast machinery health by constructing health propagation models for the underlying systems. In particular, algorithms that use the data-driven approach learn models directly from the data, rather than using a hand-built model based on human expertise.

Publication Control Number: 
055
Submission Keywords: 
Bayesian reasoning
data driven prognostics
prognostics
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Abhinav Saxena, Jose Celaya, Bhaskar Saha, Sankalita Saha, and Kai Goebel
Submission Type: 
Full Paper
Supporting Agencies (optional): 
NASA Ames Research Center

Prognostics performance evaluation has gained significant attention in the past few years. As prognostics technology matures and more sophisticated methods for prognostic uncertainty management are developed, a standardized methodology for performance evaluation becomes extremely important to guide improvement efforts in a constructive manner. This paper is in continuation of previous efforts where several new evaluation metrics tailored for prognostics were introduced and were shown to effectively evaluate various algorithms as compared to other conventional metrics.

Publication Control Number: 
039
Submission Keywords: 
data driven prognostics
diagnostic performance
model based prognostics
performance metrics
PHM system design and engineering
prognostic performance
prognostics
remaining useful life (RUL)
return on investment (ROI)
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Nathan Bolander, Hai Qiu, Neil Eklund, Ed Hindle, and Taylor Rosenfeld
Submission Type: 
Full Paper

Aircraft engine bearing prognosis not only requires early detection of a bearing defect, but also the ability to predict bearing health conditions given certain operational scenarios. This paper summarizes a physics-based remaining useful life prediction method developed in the DARPA engine system prognosis (ESP) program. This investigation focuses on a typical roller bearing fault (or defect) on the outer raceway. Spall detection is based on the fusion of vibration and online oil debris sensors.

Publication Control Number: 
041
Submission Keywords: 
aircraft engines
applications: aviation
bearings
condition monitoring
damage detection
damage modeling
damage propagation model
data driven prognostics
remaining useful life (RUL)
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Masoud Rabiei, Mohammad Modarres, and Paul Hoffman
Submission Type: 
Full Paper
Supporting Agencies (optional): 
University of Maryland-College Park

Fatigue crack initiation and growth during the service of aging aircraft are important life-limiting phenomena. In a previous study, a risk prediction and reliability model for naval aircraft has been developed based on fracture mechanics and inspection field data. Despite significant achievements in the study of fatigue cracks using fracture mechanics, it is still of great interest to find practical techniques for monitoring the crack growth using non-destructive inspection and to integrate the inspection results with the fracture mechanics models to improve the predictions.

Publication Control Number: 
043
Submission Keywords: 
applications: aviation
crack detection
damage detection
damage propagation model
data driven prognostics
fatigue crack growth
materials damage prognostics
structural health management
structural health monitoring
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Tolga Kurtoglu, Sriram Narasimhan, Scott Poll, David Garcia, and Stephanie Wright
Submission Type: 
Full Paper

Diagnostic algorithms (DAs) are key to enabling automated health management. These algorithms are designed to detect and isolate anomalies of either a component or the whole system based on observations received from sensors. In recent years a wide range of algorithms, both model based and data-driven, have been developed to increase autonomy and improve system reliability and affordability. However, the lack of support to perform systematic benchmarking of these algorithms continues to create barriers for effective development and deployment of diagnostic technologies.

Publication Control Number: 
012
Submission Keywords: 
autonomous system
data driven prognostics
diagnostic performance
prognostic performance
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Douglas W. Brown, George Georgoulas, Brian Bole, Hai-Long Pei, Marcos E. Orchard, Liang Tang, Bhaskar Saha, Abhinav Saxena, Kai Goebel, and George Vachtsevanos
Submission Type: 
Full Paper
Supporting Agencies (optional): 
NASA

Actuator systems are employed widely in aerospace, transportation and industrial processes to provide power to critical loads, such as aircraft control surfaces. They must operate reliably and accurately in order for the vehicle / process to complete successfully its designated mission. Incipient actuator failure conditions may severely endanger the operational integrity of the vehicle / process and compromise its mission.

Publication Control Number: 
045
Submission Keywords: 
actuator
applications: automotive
condition monitoring
damage detection
damage modeling
damage propagation model
data driven prognostics
Electromechanical actuator
prognostics
remaining useful life (RUL)
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