Lifetime models for remaining useful life estimation with randomly distributed failure thresholds

Bent H. Nystad, Giulio Gola, and John E. Hulsund
Submission Type: 
Full Paper
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phmce_12_024.pdf336.65 KBMay 30, 2012 - 1:04am

In order to predict in advance and with the smallest possible uncertainty when a component needs to be fixed or replaced, lifetime models are developed based on the information of the component deterioration trend and its failure threshold to estimate the stochastic distribution of the hitting time (the first time the deterioration exceeds the failure threshold) and the remaining useful life. A primary issue is how to effectively handle the uncertainties related to the component deterioration trend and failure threshold. This problem is here investigated considering a non-stationary gamma process to model the component deterioration and a gamma-distributed failure threshold. Two lifetime models are proposed for comparison on an application concerning deterioration of choke valves used in offshore oil platforms.

Publication Year: 
2012
Publication Volume: 
3
Publication Control Number: 
024
Page Count: 
7
Submission Keywords: 
RUL
gamma process
random distributed threshold
Submission Topic Areas: 
Model-based methods for fault detection, diagnostics, and prognosis
Submitted by: 
  
 
 
 

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