Prognostic Algorithm Verification

N. Scott Clements and David S. Bodden
Submission Type: 
Full Paper
Supporting Agencies (optional): 
Lockheed Martin Aeronautics
phmc_13_056.pdf2.16 MBOctober 10, 2013 - 9:23am

A rigorous methodology is presented for both specification and verification of prognostic algorithm performance. The prognostic algorithm specification statement takes the form, “The prognostic algorithm shall provide a minimum of hours time-to-maintenance such that between % and % of failures of component ABC will be avoided with % confidence.” The methodology is developed first for a single failure mode case and then extended to the multiple failure mode case. The case of non-prognosable failure modes is also considered. Finally, implications of this approach are presented, including pre-tabulation of confidence bounds, estimation of the minimum amount of data required to reach a given verification confidence, and a method for using a minimum confidence growth curve to account for initial low confidence in a prognostic algorithm.

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Submission Topic Areas: 
Verification and validation
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